Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1247 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 1247 DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 1670 DEN 19:25 → PDX 21:00 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 4% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1247 United Flight history →	DEN 08:05	PDX 09:47	7%	2%	0.5%	88%
WN 300 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	PDX 09:25	8%	1%	0.5%	73%
AS 1626 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 08:00	PDX 09:46	12%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 644 United Flight history →	DEN 11:27	PDX 13:09	13%	4%	0.5%	84%
UA 2455 United Flight history →	DEN 13:27	PDX 15:13	13%	5%	0.6%	90%
WN 1667 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 09:35	PDX 11:10	14%	2%	0.5%	77%
UA 1337 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	PDX 17:46	15%	7%	0.5%	84%
AS 684 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 12:02	PDX 13:46	16%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 1770 United Flight history →	DEN 21:30	PDX 23:13	16%	5%	0.6%	69%
UA 498 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	PDX 21:15	16%	7%	0.6%	80%
WN 4271 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:45	PDX 13:25	22%	3%	0.5%	67%
AS 1807 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 19:05	PDX 20:50	24%	5%	0.6%	58%
WN 1671 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:05	PDX 22:50	29%	6%	0.6%	32%
F9 2553 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:08	PDX 16:51	30%	7%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
WN 1669 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:15	PDX 20:00	31%	7%	0.6%	41%
WN 1670 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:25	PDX 21:00	35%	7%	0.6%	4%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON