Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1214 at 23:59 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 14%.

Safest bet that day UA 1214 DEN 23:59 → PHL 05:31 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 2686 DEN 19:05 → PHL 00:45 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 22% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1214 United Flight history →	DEN 23:59	PHL 05:31	10%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 1575 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	PHL 15:12	12%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2344 American Flight history →	DEN 08:41	PHL 14:20	14%	3%	0.6%	84%
F9 2514 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:05	PHL 11:49	14%	4%	0.8%	92%
AA 2500 American Flight history →	DEN 23:55	PHL 05:32	15%	4%	0.7%	78%
UA 1510 United Flight history →	DEN 17:54	PHL 23:30	22%	9%	0.6%	58%
AA 1751 American Flight history →	DEN 12:49	PHL 18:35	24%	9%	0.7%	66%
F9 3340 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 23:59	PHL 05:39	25%	10%	0.9%	62%
WN 3157 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:30	PHL 16:05	25%	4%	0.5%	72%
AA 1759 American Flight history →	DEN 15:13	PHL 20:59	29%	11%	0.7%	58%
WN 3286 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:05	PHL 19:45	32%	8%	0.5%	67%
WN 2686 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	PHL 00:45	34%	8%	0.6%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON