Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1675 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 1675 DEN 06:15 → PHX 07:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 4765 DEN 20:31 → PHX 21:28 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1675 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 06:15	PHX 07:05	3%	1%	0.7%	91%
WN 165 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:10	PHX 08:00	5%	1%	0.7%	92%
WN 3336 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:00	PHX 09:05	7%	1%	0.7%	83%
WN 431 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:30	PHX 09:25	7%	1%	0.7%	89%
UA 1481 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	PHX 09:00	10%	3%	0.5%	84%
F9 1747 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:45	PHX 07:40	11%	3%	0.7%	81%
AA 1404 American Flight history →	DEN 07:13	PHX 08:08	11%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 1686 United Flight history →	DEN 11:25	PHX 12:25	16%	5%	0.5%	87%
F9 2141 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:15	PHX 10:11	18%	6%	0.6%	87%
AA 1757 American Flight history →	DEN 12:15	PHX 13:08	18%	8%	0.6%	82%
WN 706 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:00	PHX 11:50	19%	3%	0.7%	74%
UA 1254 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	PHX 16:35	19%	7%	0.6%	82%
WN 1680 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:35	PHX 13:30	19%	4%	0.7%	73%
WN 1685 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 22:10	PHX 23:10	22%	7%	0.8%	65%
WN 1681 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:20	PHX 15:20	24%	6%	0.7%	67%
UA 1236 United Flight history →	DEN 20:59	PHX 21:59	24%	9%	0.6%	68%
UA 1729 United Flight history →	DEN 19:32	PHX 20:32	24%	9%	0.6%	76%
F9 4753 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:36	PHX 23:32	29%	11%	0.9%	68%
WN 1684 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:10	PHX 22:05	29%	8%	0.7%	40%
WN 1683 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:00	PHX 20:00	30%	8%	0.7%	29%
AA 1638 American Flight history →	DEN 18:56	PHX 19:52	30%	11%	0.8%	51%
WN 4447 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:05	PHX 21:05	30%	9%	0.7%	33%
WN 1682 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:20	PHX 18:15	33%	8%	0.7%	21%
F9 4765 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 20:31	PHX 21:28	36%	14%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON