Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1308 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 1308 DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 1688 DEN 20:10 → PIT 01:15 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1308 United Flight history →	DEN 10:05	PIT 15:16	13%	3%	0.5%	85%
WN 4012 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:00	PIT 15:10	15%	3%	0.5%	76%
UA 2155 United Flight history →	DEN 17:38	PIT 22:45	23%	7%	0.5%	71%
WN 4381 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:35	PIT 20:35	31%	8%	0.5%	62%
WN 1688 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:10	PIT 01:15	32%	7%	0.6%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON