Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2185 at 10:20 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2185 United Flight history →	DEN 10:20	PNS 14:15	11%	4%	0.5%	78%
WN 2264 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:45	PNS 17:40	22%	6%	0.5%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → PNS 08:17DL 3103	6h 37m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	DEN 05:10 → DAL 08:05WN 1078	1h 30m Dallas	DAL 09:35 → PNS 11:25WN 3796	5h 15m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640	6h 15m	98%	84%
United Details →	DEN 07:42 → IAH 11:15UA 1720	3h 05m Houston	IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir	7h 24m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	6h 58m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DEN 09:39 → ATL 14:35DL 2235	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	6h 24m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021	8h 12m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	DEN 13:10 → ATL 18:10DL 824	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 21:34 → PNS 21:47DL 3086	7h 37m	100%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 16:23 → DFW 19:34AA 1832	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:22 → PNS 22:22AA 5510 · flown by PSA	4h 59m	65%	48%
Southwest Details →	DEN 15:55 → DAL 19:00WN 1388	50m Dallas	DAL 19:50 → PNS 21:40WN 1388	4h 45m	66%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON