Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5298 at 11:15 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5298 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:15	PSC 12:54	17%	5%	0.5%	82%
UA 1913 United Flight history →	DEN 19:24	PSC 20:52	28%	7%	0.5%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pasco is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:40 → SLC 07:13DL 2544	1h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:15 → PSC 09:01DL 3694 · flown by SkyWest	4h 21m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:05 → SLC 08:36DL 1581	3h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 12:24 → PSC 13:09DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	7h 04m	97%	88%
United Details →	DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367	2h 22m San Francisco	SFO 09:15 → PSC 11:27UA 4717 · flown by SkyWest	7h 12m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DEN 12:45 → SLC 14:20DL 1553	1h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:52 → PSC 16:38DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	4h 53m	94%	85%
American Details →	DEN 07:13 → PHX 08:08AA 1404	3h 51m Phoenix	PHX 11:59 → PSC 14:50AA 6220 · flown by SkyWest	8h 37m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	DEN 18:15 → SEA 20:17AS 249	2h 27m Seattle	SEA 22:44 → PSC 23:43AS 2403 · flown by Horizon	6h 28m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	DEN 19:09 → SLC 20:49DL 2663	2h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:15 → PSC 23:54DL 1712	5h 45m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26DL 1731	2h 09m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → PSC 11:43DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON