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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1598 at 09:54, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1598 United Flight history → DEN 09:54 PWM 15:49 15% 3% 0.6% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:13 → IAD 11:41UA 1279 1h 04m Dulles IAD 12:45 → PWM 14:34UA 3535 · flown by Republic 6h 21m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:05 → DTW 10:54DL 1745 3h 11m Detroit DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821 7h 56m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 1h 37m Dulles IAD 17:30 → PWM 19:27UA 3651 · flown by Republic 7h 07m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:40 → EWR 13:27UA 2640 3h 32m Newark EWR 16:59 → PWM 18:29UA 3599 · flown by Republic 8h 49m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 05:45 → BNA 09:15WN 1483 2h 00m Nashville BNA 11:15 → PWM 14:40WN 651 6h 55m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → DEN 09:08 → ORD 12:56AA 1747 2h 22m Chicago ORD 15:18 → PWM 18:52AA 4774 · flown by Republic 7h 44m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 2h 48m Dulles IAD 22:10 → PWM 23:51UA 2064 7h 58m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → DEN 13:10 → ATL 18:10DL 824 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → PWM 23:14DL 2138 8h 04m 100% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DEN 13:56 → CLT 19:22AA 1758 57m Charlotte CLT 20:19 → PWM 22:36AA 2120 6h 40m 70% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON