Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5927 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 5927 DEN 07:55 → RAP 09:19 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 5225 DEN 17:55 → RAP 19:24 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5927 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:55	RAP 09:19	9%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1623 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	RAP 12:29	12%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 4674 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	RAP 11:30	13%	4%	0.6%	81%
UA 5556 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:25	RAP 14:46	16%	5%	1.0%	81%
UA 2781 United Flight history →	DEN 21:10	RAP 22:25	17%	5%	0.6%	37%
UA 5490 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:43	RAP 17:12	18%	6%	0.7%	77%
UA 5608 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:15	RAP 20:38	18%	7%	1.2%	53%
UA 5225 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:55	RAP 19:24	20%	8%	0.8%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON