Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: F9 2440 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–40%.

Safest bet that day F9 2440 DEN 06:03 → RDU 11:31 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 1692 DEN 19:20 → RDU 00:45 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2440 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:03	RDU 11:31	10%	3%	0.8%	87%
UA 2269 United Flight history →	DEN 09:49	RDU 15:16	11%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 1691 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:00	RDU 15:25	21%	3%	0.6%	76%
UA 2671 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	RDU 23:16	24%	6%	0.6%	77%
WN 1692 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:20	RDU 00:45	40%	6%	0.6%	23%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	DEN 05:45 → BNA 09:15WN 1483	55m Nashville	BNA 10:10 → RDU 12:40WN 1795	4h 55m	94%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON