Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2030 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2030 DEN 09:50 → RIC 15:12 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest WN 1693 DEN 13:40 → RIC 19:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2030 United Flight history →	DEN 09:50	RIC 15:12	12%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 1534 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	RIC 23:25	22%	6%	0.6%	79%
F9 1582 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 12:26	RIC 17:52	26%	6%	0.6%	90%worse than usual
WN 1693 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:40	RIC 19:05	27%	5%	0.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON