Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2689 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2689 DEN 07:45 → RNO 09:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 1696 DEN 21:40 → RNO 23:10 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2689 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	RNO 09:05	6%	1%	0.6%	82%
UA 2167 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	RNO 12:39	13%	4%	0.5%	87%
UA 1604 United Flight history →	DEN 16:10	RNO 17:36	17%	7%	0.5%	85%
UA 2852 United Flight history →	DEN 21:00	RNO 22:26	21%	7%	0.6%	63%
WN 4136 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 16:10	RNO 17:40	23%	6%	0.5%	58%
UA 719 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	RNO 20:50	24%	8%	0.6%	69%
WN 1696 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:40	RNO 23:10	27%	6%	0.6%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON