Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2601 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 2601 DEN 09:35 → RSW 15:22 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 957 DEN 14:25 → RSW 20:10 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2601 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	RSW 15:22	20%	6%	7.5%	90%worse than usual
UA 2348 United Flight history →	DEN 16:04	RSW 21:50	22%	8%	7.3%	72%
WN 957 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:25	RSW 20:10	36%	10%	11.9%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON