Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2664 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2664 DEN 07:40 → SAT 10:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 2073 DEN 19:50 → SAT 23:10 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2664 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SAT 10:50	5%	1%	0.5%	84%
UA 2625 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	SAT 12:43	9%	3%	0.5%	92%
WN 3149 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 09:20	SAT 12:25	10%	2%	0.5%	81%
UA 1022 United Flight history →	DEN 13:44	SAT 16:55	14%	6%	0.5%	90%
UA 395 United Flight history →	DEN 20:39	SAT 23:55	17%	6%	0.6%	66%
UA 2819 United Flight history →	DEN 17:39	SAT 20:54	19%	8%	0.5%	61%
WN 1316 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:10	SAT 17:25	22%	5%	0.5%	38%
F9 2356 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:30	SAT 18:44	29%	9%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
WN 1708 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:40	SAT 21:05	31%	7%	0.5%	18%
WN 2073 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:50	SAT 23:10	31%	7%	0.5%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON