Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 18–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 671 DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 3842 DEN 20:55 → SBA 22:30 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 671 United Flight history →	DEN 11:26	SBA 13:02	18%	6%	0.8%	82%
UA 2479 United Flight history →	DEN 19:23	SBA 20:59	23%	9%	0.8%	56%
WN 3842 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	SBA 22:30	28%	7%	0.7%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON