Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1482 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–52%.

Safest bet that day UA 1482 DEN 06:00 → SEA 08:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 1716 DEN 19:50 → SEA 21:50 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1482 United Flight history →	DEN 06:00	SEA 08:00	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1731 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:30	SEA 08:26	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
AS 643 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 06:02	SEA 08:05	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 1713 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	SEA 09:45	15%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 2271 United Flight history →	DEN 08:01	SEA 10:00	17%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1424 United Flight history →	DEN 11:21	SEA 13:21	18%	4%	0.6%	86%
F9 4545 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:13	SEA 09:17	19%	4%	0.8%	82%
F9 1175 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:13	SEA 11:20	19%	5%	0.8%	81%
DL 1358 Delta Flight history →	DEN 13:03	SEA 15:05	22%	5%	0.6%	80%
UA 2164 United Flight history →	DEN 14:00	SEA 16:00	24%	6%	0.6%	84%
UA 2651 United Flight history →	DEN 21:10	SEA 23:10	25%	6%	0.6%	72%
WN 3051 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	SEA 12:05	25%	4%	0.6%	76%
UA 2013 United Flight history →	DEN 15:58	SEA 17:59	26%	8%	0.6%	80%
AS 317 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 08:40	SEA 10:42	27%	3%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
AS 381 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 12:55	SEA 14:53	28%	6%	0.6%	77%
AS 535 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 16:36	SEA 18:38	32%	8%	0.6%	67%
AS 493 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 21:08	SEA 23:10	32%	7%	0.6%	57%
DL 2543 Delta Flight history →	DEN 18:39	SEA 20:41	33%	7%	0.7%	57%
UA 360 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	SEA 21:10	33%	7%	0.6%	69%
WN 4130 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:30	SEA 14:25	34%	6%	0.6%	37%
AS 249 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 18:15	SEA 20:17	37%	8%	0.6%	58%
WN 3856 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:10	SEA 23:10	40%	9%	0.6%	28%
WN 1716 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:50	SEA 21:50	52%	12%	0.6%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON