Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2367 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 2367 DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4330 DEN 18:45 → SFO 20:25 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 17% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2367 United Flight history →	DEN 05:15	SFO 06:53	3%	1%	0.5%	96%
UA 1301 United Flight history →	DEN 06:02	SFO 07:38	4%	2%	0.5%	89%
UA 2391 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SFO 09:18	19%	8%	0.5%	71%
UA 1450 United Flight history →	DEN 12:25	SFO 14:09	20%	9%	0.5%	48%
UA 2633 United Flight history →	DEN 15:47	SFO 17:30	20%	11%	0.5%	73%
UA 1561 United Flight history →	DEN 11:21	SFO 13:04	20%	8%	0.5%	72%
UA 1812 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	SFO 15:09	21%	10%	0.5%	76%
UA 2123 United Flight history →	DEN 21:10	SFO 22:56	22%	8%	0.5%	60%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	DEN 17:54	SFO 19:40	22%	10%	0.5%	68%
F9 3439 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:29	SFO 00:23	24%	15%	0.7%	70%
WN 2386 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	SFO 09:25	24%	8%	0.5%	16%
UA 1506 United Flight history →	DEN 09:43	SFO 11:25	29%	10%	0.5%	48%
WN 4303 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:40	SFO 23:30	31%	10%	0.5%	10%
UA 1389 United Flight history →	DEN 19:34	SFO 21:20	33%	12%	0.5%	44%
WN 1719 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:40	SFO 13:20	33%	11%	0.5%	14%
F9 1093 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:58	SFO 20:54	36%	23%	0.6%	62%
WN 4330 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:45	SFO 20:25	38%	14%	0.5%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON