Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5468 DEN 07:42 → SGF 10:43 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest UA 5886 DEN 17:38 → SGF 20:43 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5468 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:42	SGF 10:43	12%	4%	0.5%	82%
UA 5481 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:54	SGF 12:52	14%	5%	0.5%	84%
UA 4693 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:20	SGF 16:20	17%	6%	0.5%	85%
UA 5687 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:45	SGF 23:42	20%	6%	0.6%	68%
UA 5886 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:38	SGF 20:43	20%	9%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON