Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 494 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 494 DEN 07:50 → SJC 09:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 1727 DEN 18:55 → SJC 20:25 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 494 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:50	SJC 09:25	6%	1%	0.5%	86%
WN 2384 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 09:30	SJC 11:00	11%	2%	0.5%	73%
UA 2808 United Flight history →	DEN 11:45	SJC 13:24	16%	5%	0.5%	65%
UA 1883 United Flight history →	DEN 15:55	SJC 17:34	19%	9%	0.5%	72%
UA 2745 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	SJC 21:09	19%	7%	0.6%	76%
WN 2743 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:20	SJC 13:50	25%	4%	0.5%	54%
WN 1728 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:20	SJC 23:00	33%	7%	0.6%	37%
WN 1727 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:55	SJC 20:25	37%	8%	0.6%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON