tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Bush, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching San Juan on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1339 United Flight history → DEN 09:43 SJU 17:38 16% 3% 0.6% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Juan is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → SJU 11:40DL 1757 9h 00m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → DEN 00:59 → DTW 05:48DL 1096 2h 47m Detroit DTW 08:35 → SJU 13:11DL 1913 10h 12m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → DEN 16:20 → IAH 19:57UA 588 3h 59m Houston IAH 23:56 → SJU 05:29 +1UA 1497 11h 09m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:42 → IAH 11:15UA 1720 3h 48m Houston IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701 10h 56m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 54m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101 3h 58m Dulles IAD 17:24 → SJU 21:24UA 2025 11h 24m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32UA 320 1h 31m Houston IAH 10:03 → SJU 15:42UA 1192 8h 42m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → DEN 08:00 → ORD 11:44UA 2430 2h 54m Chicago ORD 14:38 → SJU 20:34UA 695 10h 34m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DEN 12:11 → MIA 18:19AA 3118 57m Miami MIA 19:16 → SJU 21:59AA 1364 7h 48m 66% 47%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 14:10 → MCO 20:05WN 1495 1h 00m Orlando MCO 21:05 → SJU 00:10 +1WN 2707 8h 00m 74% 37%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 15:40 → MCO 21:30WN 1595 55m Orlando MCO 22:25 → SJU 01:25 +1WN 2708 7h 45m 71% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON