Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2544 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2544 DEN 05:40 → SLC 07:13 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 1737 DEN 20:55 → SLC 22:40 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2544 Delta Flight history →	DEN 05:40	SLC 07:13	4%	2%	0.5%	87%
WN 452 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	SLC 09:20	4%	1%	0.5%	90%
DL 1581 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:05	SLC 08:36	6%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 497 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	SLC 09:37	7%	2%	0.5%	90%
F9 3219 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:00	SLC 07:31	8%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 4027 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	SLC 11:45	9%	2%	0.5%	80%
WN 1731 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:45	SLC 13:25	14%	3%	0.5%	64%
UA 1963 United Flight history →	DEN 11:40	SLC 13:13	15%	4%	0.5%	80%
DL 1553 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:45	SLC 14:20	16%	5%	0.5%	84%
UA 5261 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 16:29	SLC 18:10	18%	7%	0.5%	76%
UA 5646 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:05	SLC 22:44	18%	6%	0.5%	80%
UA 1840 United Flight history →	DEN 13:40	SLC 15:13	19%	5%	0.5%	84%
DL 1623 Delta Flight history →	DEN 15:55	SLC 17:32	20%	6%	0.5%	84%
UA 5762 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:45	SLC 19:25	20%	8%	0.5%	73%
WN 1733 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 16:50	SLC 18:35	21%	6%	0.5%	63%
WN 1732 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:05	SLC 14:35	22%	4%	0.6%	50%
F9 3981 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:18	SLC 14:55	23%	8%	0.6%	86%
DL 2663 Delta Flight history →	DEN 19:09	SLC 20:49	25%	5%	0.5%	72%
UA 2769 United Flight history →	DEN 19:23	SLC 20:56	25%	6%	0.5%	53%
WN 1734 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:50	SLC 19:35	25%	6%	0.5%	45%
F9 4251 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:13	SLC 23:44	26%	8%	0.6%	71%
WN 1737 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	SLC 22:40	26%	7%	0.5%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON