Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2149 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2149 DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 136 DEN 20:20 → SMF 21:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 9% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2149 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	SMF 09:35	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
WN 1738 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:55	SMF 09:30	6%	1%	0.5%	90%
WN 1739 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 09:00	SMF 10:25	10%	2%	0.5%	69%
WN 1740 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:20	SMF 11:55	13%	3%	0.5%	74%
UA 1415 United Flight history →	DEN 11:30	SMF 13:05	14%	5%	0.5%	82%
UA 662 United Flight history →	DEN 13:35	SMF 15:10	18%	7%	0.5%	83%
F9 3665 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:01	SMF 10:35	19%	5%	0.6%	82%
UA 1208 United Flight history →	DEN 16:03	SMF 17:41	20%	8%	0.5%	82%
UA 1268 United Flight history →	DEN 20:40	SMF 22:15	21%	7%	0.6%	58%
UA 2132 United Flight history →	DEN 19:37	SMF 21:12	21%	7%	0.5%	74%
WN 1741 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:25	SMF 15:55	30%	6%	0.5%	70%
WN 4096 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:50	SMF 17:25	31%	8%	0.5%	48%
WN 1744 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:35	SMF 23:10	31%	7%	0.5%	33%
WN 136 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:20	SMF 21:55	31%	7%	0.5%	9%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON