Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1745 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1745 DEN 07:50 → SNA 09:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1748 DEN 19:00 → SNA 20:30 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1745 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:50	SNA 09:15	7%	1%	0.5%	94%
UA 2666 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SNA 09:07	8%	2%	0.6%	95%
F9 4371 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:40	SNA 08:05	10%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 1320 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	SNA 12:51	12%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 1707 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	SNA 14:57	15%	6%	0.6%	86%
UA 725 United Flight history →	DEN 20:32	SNA 22:01	15%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 1704 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	SNA 20:40	16%	5%	0.6%	75%
UA 2657 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	SNA 17:30	18%	6%	0.6%	81%
WN 744 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:30	SNA 22:00	20%	3%	0.6%	52%
WN 4175 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:25	SNA 12:50	21%	4%	0.5%	78%
WN 4131 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:55	SNA 16:20	24%	5%	0.5%	35%
WN 1748 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:00	SNA 20:30	27%	5%	0.6%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON