Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1751 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 1751 DEN 05:35 → STL 08:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 5074 DEN 17:15 → STL 20:20 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1751 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:35	STL 08:35	3%	1%	0.6%	90%
WN 1373 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:20	STL 10:25	7%	1%	0.5%	93%
UA 652 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	STL 12:42	12%	3%	0.5%	84%
WN 1753 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	STL 13:20	13%	2%	0.5%	96%
UA 1639 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	STL 16:33	20%	5%	0.5%	87%
WN 3152 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:40	STL 14:50	20%	2%	0.5%	77%
UA 214 United Flight history →	DEN 20:45	STL 23:57	21%	5%	0.5%	58%
UA 1422 United Flight history →	DEN 17:34	STL 20:43	24%	7%	0.5%	72%
F9 3302 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:10	STL 19:23	28%	8%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
WN 3130 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:40	STL 18:45	31%	5%	0.5%	62%
WN 3317 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:45	STL 23:55	31%	5%	0.5%	41%
WN 1756 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:30	STL 22:45	35%	7%	0.5%	40%
WN 5074 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:15	STL 20:20	38%	6%	0.5%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON