Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5554 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:44	SUN 13:47	15%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 5734 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:25	SUN 21:26	20%	5%	0.6%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 07:05 → SLC 08:36DL 1581	2h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → SUN 12:25DL 3973 · flown by SkyWest	5h 20m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	DEN 15:55 → SLC 17:32DL 1623	3h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SUN 22:07DL 3985 · flown by SkyWest	6h 12m	96%	89%
United Details →	DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34UA 1093	2h 28m Los Angeles	LAX 10:02 → SUN 13:16UA 5980 · flown by SkyWest	7h 12m	100%	86%
United Details →	DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774	3h 48m Los Angeles	LAX 18:45 → SUN 22:01UA 6043 · flown by SkyWest	8h 35m	99%	85%
United Details →	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	3h 46m San Francisco	SFO 18:55 → SUN 21:51UA 5986 · flown by SkyWest	8h 26m	99%	79%
United Details →	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 16:00 → SUN 18:58UA 5416 · flown by SkyWest	7h 43m	89%	69%
Alaska Details →	DEN 12:55 → SEA 14:53AS 381	1h 32m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → SUN 19:01AS 2322 · flown by Horizon	6h 06m	93%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON