Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2762 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 2762 DEN 06:40 → TPA 12:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2232 DEN 19:55 → TPA 01:35 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2762 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 06:40	TPA 12:10	6%	1%	17.1%	92%
F9 2748 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:00	TPA 11:35	10%	3%	17.3%	86%
UA 1010 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	TPA 15:14	13%	3%	17.1%	89%
WN 3560 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	TPA 15:45	17%	3%	16.6%	78%
UA 2375 United Flight history →	DEN 13:35	TPA 19:13	19%	7%	17.1%	86%
F9 2746 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 23:59	TPA 05:32	22%	9%	7.0%	77%
UA 1961 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	TPA 23:29	24%	8%	9.0%	71%
WN 4739 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 16:50	TPA 22:35	30%	9%	6.6%	42%
WN 2232 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:55	TPA 01:35	34%	9%	8.6%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON