Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5315 at 10:04 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 5315 DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4635 DEN 17:20 → TUL 19:55 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5315 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:04	TUL 12:59	12%	3%	0.5%	88%
WN 1762 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:20	TUL 13:05	13%	2%	0.6%	85%
UA 5311 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:40	TUL 16:29	16%	6%	0.5%	90%
UA 4712 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	TUL 23:47	16%	6%	0.5%	81%
UA 5280 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:35	TUL 18:24	19%	7%	0.5%	86%
UA 1937 United Flight history →	DEN 17:37	TUL 20:27	22%	8%	0.6%	80%
WN 1764 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:55	TUL 22:40	31%	7%	0.6%	46%
WN 4635 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:20	TUL 19:55	33%	8%	0.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON