Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1188 at 11:30 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 1188 DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 1195 DEN 18:10 → TUS 19:20 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1188 United Flight history →	DEN 11:30	TUS 12:32	17%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 4313 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:45	TUS 22:50	31%	8%	0.6%	51%
UA 1762 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	TUS 20:12	32%	7%	0.6%	69%
WN 1195 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:10	TUS 19:20	35%	10%	0.6%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON