Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1887 United Flight history →	DEN 09:45	TVC 14:26	18%	3%	0.6%	76%
OO 5538 SkyWest	DEN 17:30	TVC 22:21	25%	9%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	4h 54m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	DEN 00:59 → DTW 05:48DL 1096	2h 42m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → TVC 09:45DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	6h 46m	98%	84%
American Details →	DEN 07:16 → ORD 11:00AA 2771	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → TVC 16:17AA 3772 · flown by Envoy	7h 01m	98%	80%
United Details →	DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023	2h 39m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:54UA 3572 · flown by Republic	6h 53m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:59 → DTW 19:49DL 1648	3h 10m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	7h 09m	98%	77%
American Details →	DEN 14:34 → ORD 18:29AA 1760	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → TVC 00:01 +1AA 3910 · flown by Envoy	7h 27m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:05 → DTW 10:54DL 1745	1h 21m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → TVC 13:27DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest	5h 22m	97%	76%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → TVC 13:13UA 2807	5h 13m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617	54m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → TVC 20:19UA 2790	4h 54m	74%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON