Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2787 at 10:58 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2787 DEN 10:58 → TYS 15:53 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest F9 2374 DEN 14:34 → TYS 19:24 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2787 United Flight history →	DEN 10:58	TYS 15:53	12%	4%	0.6%	76%
UA 2473 United Flight history →	DEN 17:25	TYS 22:19	19%	6%	0.6%	71%
WN 1768 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:20	TYS 19:10	24%	4%	0.6%	79%
F9 2374 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 14:34	TYS 19:24	26%	8%	0.6%	81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	DEN 05:45 → BNA 09:15WN 1483	55m Nashville	BNA 10:10 → TYS 12:00WN 4206	4h 15m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON