Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3371 at 10:41 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 3371 DFW 10:41 → ABQ 11:37 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 1062 DFW 21:51 → ABQ 22:44 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3371 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:41	ABQ 11:37	13%	3%	0.8%	76%
AA 3374 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 11:56	ABQ 12:52	14%	3%	0.9%	90%
AA 3381 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:03	ABQ 16:56	18%	4%	0.9%	76%
AA 928 American Flight history →	DFW 09:09	ABQ 09:59	18%	5%	0.8%	77%
AA 3659 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:46	ABQ 19:39	23%	5%	1.1%	70%
AA 9 American Flight history →	DFW 14:26	ABQ 15:15	25%	10%	0.9%	64%
AA 2564 American Flight history →	DFW 22:56	ABQ 23:49	28%	9%	1.0%	60%
AA 1062 American Flight history →	DFW 21:51	ABQ 22:44	31%	11%	1.2%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON