tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 391 at 18:38, with a 42% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 391 American Flight history → DFW 18:38 ALB 23:15 42% 13% 0.8% 44%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albany on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albany is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695 2h 18m Chicago ORD 12:08 → ALB 15:17UA 1554 7h 09m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 1h 01m Detroit DTW 10:05 → ALB 11:47DL 5522 · flown by Endeavor 5h 26m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:05 → PHL 09:22AA 2358 3h 43m Philadelphia PHL 13:05 → ALB 14:29AA 6028 · flown by Piedmont 8h 26m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:02 → DCA 10:59AA 1623 2h 21m Washington DCA 13:20 → ALB 14:42AA 2347 6h 40m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:00 → ORD 07:38AA 1360 1h 53m Chicago ORD 09:31 → ALB 12:48AA 5004 · flown by SkyWest 6h 48m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → ALB 17:59DL 1053 6h 53m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → DFW 12:00 → ORD 14:42UA 1401 3h 33m Chicago ORD 18:15 → ALB 21:27UA 2792 8h 27m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → DFW 08:40 → PHL 13:02AA 2128 3h 38m Philadelphia PHL 16:40 → ALB 18:04AA 6024 · flown by Piedmont 8h 24m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DFW 17:15 → IAD 21:24UA 1240 46m Dulles IAD 22:10 → ALB 23:47UA 4321 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 32m 67% 53%
AmericanDetails → DFW 14:25 → PHL 18:52AA 1100 58m Philadelphia PHL 19:50 → ALB 21:23AA 5850 · flown by Piedmont 5h 58m 69% 48%
JetBlueDetails → DFW 16:10 → FLL 20:10B6 1882 49m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:59 → ALB 00:07 +1B6 87 6h 57m 57% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON