Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3389 at 08:22 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 3389 DFW 08:22 → AMA 09:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 1536 DFW 22:41 → AMA 23:59 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 26% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3389 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:22	AMA 09:44	8%	2%	1.0%	96%
AA 3384 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 11:23	AMA 12:42	14%	2%	1.1%	86%
AA 3387 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:29	AMA 15:46	15%	3%	1.3%	74%
AA 3510 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:05	AMA 21:27	16%	3%	1.5%	76%
AA 3388 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:15	AMA 18:34	16%	3%	1.5%	86%
AA 4933 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 21:30	AMA 22:59	16%	5%	0.9%	83%
AA 1536 American Flight history →	DFW 22:41	AMA 23:59	31%	9%	1.7%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON