tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1355 American Flight history → DFW 14:38 ANC 18:30 23% 8% 0.7% 54%
AA 395 American Flight history → DFW 18:40 ANC 22:39 27% 8% 0.7% 64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DFW 09:46 → IAH 11:03UA 1586 3h 17m Houston IAH 14:20 → ANC 18:41UA 2369 11h 55m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → DFW 07:15 → EWR 11:51UA 1219 3h 37m Newark EWR 15:28 → ANC 19:12UA 450 14h 57m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → DFW 11:02 → SFO 12:51UA 1712 3h 59m San Francisco SFO 16:50 → ANC 20:49UA 1656 12h 47m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773 47m Denver DEN 07:40 → ANC 11:10UA 394 8h 25m 91% 79%
UnitedDetails → DFW 09:45 → ORD 12:26UA 1114 3h 44m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 13h 09m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → DFW 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 644 1h 14m Denver DEN 11:20 → ANC 14:53UA 280 9h 08m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → DFW 11:19 → DTW 15:02DL 2746 3h 33m Detroit DTW 18:35 → ANC 21:20DL 1134 13h 01m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → DFW 11:35 → DEN 12:45UA 2049 2h 50m Denver DEN 15:35 → ANC 19:12UA 1592 10h 37m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DFW 17:55 → PHX 18:27AA 1648 51m Phoenix PHX 19:18 → ANC 23:59AA 1981 9h 04m 61% 44%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 18:03 → SEA 20:24AS 322 51m Seattle SEA 21:15 → ANC 23:55AS 771 8h 52m 62% 41%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 20:45 → SEA 23:05AS 550 54m Seattle SEA 23:59 → ANC 02:43 +1AS 1363 8h 58m 54% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON