Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 17–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6388 DFW 08:30 → ASE 10:01 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AA 6419 DFW 18:52 → ASE 20:17 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6388 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 08:30	ASE 10:01	17%	6%	1.1%	74%
AA 4912 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 10:50	ASE 12:21	18%	7%	1.2%	82%
AA 6384 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 12:21	ASE 13:44	20%	8%	1.4%	63%
AA 6419 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 18:52	ASE 20:17	24%	8%	3.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON