Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 401 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 401 DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2496 DFW 16:16 → ATL 19:50 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 401 Delta Flight history →	DFW 05:20	ATL 08:34	4%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 893 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:45	ATL 09:59	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1627 Delta Flight history →	DFW 08:10	ATL 11:28	7%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 839 Delta Flight history →	DFW 10:06	ATL 13:25	9%	2%	0.7%	83%
AA 3390 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 06:00	ATL 09:13	9%	2%	0.7%	84%
DL 961 Delta Flight history →	DFW 12:17	ATL 15:35	11%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 414 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:50	ATL 17:14	14%	3%	0.7%	80%
AA 891 American Flight history →	DFW 07:19	ATL 10:29	15%	4%	0.7%	77%
DL 2143 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:51	ATL 20:19	16%	5%	0.7%	69%
AA 1358 American Flight history →	DFW 09:34	ATL 12:46	18%	4%	0.7%	76%
DL 374 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:32	ATL 21:59	19%	5%	0.8%	73%
AA 1386 American Flight history →	DFW 10:58	ATL 14:10	20%	5%	0.7%	69%
AA 1356 American Flight history →	DFW 12:10	ATL 15:20	23%	6%	0.7%	52%
F9 1270 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 06:19	ATL 09:41	23%	6%	0.7%	65%
AA 1376 American Flight history →	DFW 13:31	ATL 16:42	25%	7%	0.7%	46%
F9 3022 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 10:00	ATL 13:27	28%	7%	0.7%	76%
AA 2749 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	ATL 00:19	30%	9%	0.9%	55%
AA 1379 American Flight history →	DFW 16:02	ATL 19:13	32%	12%	0.7%	34%
AA 3212 American Flight history →	DFW 19:26	ATL 22:35	32%	10%	1.0%	56%
F9 2496 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:16	ATL 19:50	38%	16%	0.9%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON