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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3977 at 09:35, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 09:35 ATW 12:09 11% 2% 0.8% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:00 → ORD 07:38AA 1360 1h 52m Chicago ORD 09:30 → ATW 10:45AA 3391 · flown by Envoy 5h 45m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:50 → ORD 19:44AA 2474 3h 16m Chicago ORD 23:00 → ATW 00:10 +1AA 3790 · flown by Envoy 7h 20m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 56m Detroit DTW 10:00 → ATW 10:29DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest 5h 09m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → DFW 13:24 → DTW 17:10DL 735 3h 59m Detroit DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest 8h 13m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → DFW 11:19 → DTW 15:02DL 2746 2h 22m Detroit DTW 17:24 → ATW 17:50DL 4166 · flown by SkyWest 6h 31m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → DFW 13:44 → DEN 14:55UA 248 2h 45m Denver DEN 17:40 → ATW 21:04UA 1204 7h 20m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → DFW 16:13 → ORD 18:55UA 2299 3h 05m Chicago ORD 22:00 → ATW 23:23UA 4495 · flown by GoJet 7h 10m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → DFW 09:45 → ORD 12:26UA 1114 1h 29m Chicago ORD 13:55 → ATW 15:09UA 4479 · flown by GoJet 5h 24m 97% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON