Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3401 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 3401 DFW 07:00 → AUS 08:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1588 DFW 22:50 → AUS 23:51 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3401 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:00	AUS 08:04	9%	2%	0.9%	90%
AA 4095 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:20	AUS 13:25	13%	2%	0.8%	87%
AA 4992 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 07:41	AUS 08:52	13%	5%	0.8%	81%
AA 3726 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:55	AUS 15:00	14%	3%	0.8%	80%
AA 3400 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:16	AUS 16:21	18%	3%	0.8%	77%
AA 1396 American Flight history →	DFW 08:45	AUS 09:48	18%	4%	0.9%	76%
AA 3402 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:17	AUS 18:24	19%	5%	1.0%	65%
AA 1413 American Flight history →	DFW 09:40	AUS 10:42	22%	5%	0.9%	75%
AA 1402 American Flight history →	DFW 10:50	AUS 11:55	23%	6%	0.8%	40%
AA 5574 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 18:04	AUS 19:16	28%	11%	1.5%	65%
AA 972 American Flight history →	DFW 21:35	AUS 22:39	31%	9%	1.1%	61%
AA 2707 American Flight history →	DFW 20:33	AUS 21:37	34%	11%	1.0%	55%
AA 789 American Flight history →	DFW 19:00	AUS 20:03	35%	11%	1.0%	55%
AA 1588 American Flight history →	DFW 22:50	AUS 23:51	36%	9%	1.0%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON