tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4260 at 19:30 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4260 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 19:30 AVL 22:56 19% 4% 1.0% 82%
AA 1429 American Flight history → DFW 13:23 AVL 16:40 37% 10% 1.3% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → AVL 11:08DL 573 4h 48m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773 2h 47m Denver DEN 09:40 → AVL 14:39UA 1464 7h 54m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317 2h 29m Charlotte CLT 13:13 → AVL 14:19AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont 6h 19m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182 5h 27m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → DFW 09:35 → ORD 12:14AA 1290 3h 15m Chicago ORD 15:29 → AVL 18:25AA 3406 · flown by Envoy 7h 50m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → DFW 08:10 → ATL 11:28DL 1627 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099 5h 30m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → DFW 15:30 → ORD 18:16AA 2740 3h 13m Chicago ORD 21:29 → AVL 00:23 +1AA 3493 · flown by Envoy 7h 53m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 15:12 → AVL 16:12DL 2037 5h 06m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DFW 17:34 → ORD 20:29AA 1893 1h 00m Chicago ORD 21:29 → AVL 00:23 +1AA 3493 · flown by Envoy 5h 49m 69% 55%
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:07 → PHL 20:50AA 2973 1h 00m Philadelphia PHL 21:50 → AVL 23:58AA 6093 · flown by Piedmont 6h 51m 69% 45%
AmericanDetails → DFW 15:39 → MIA 19:40AA 3083 1h 00m Miami MIA 20:40 → AVL 22:47AA 4042 · flown by Envoy 6h 08m 62% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON