Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1438 American Flight history →	DFW 12:22	BDL 16:57	28%	6%	0.8%	58%
AA 1425 American Flight history →	DFW 18:49	BDL 23:31	33%	10%	0.9%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hartford is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	2h 52m Denver	DEN 09:45 → BDL 15:37UA 2643	8h 52m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082	6h 25m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	1h 26m Detroit	DTW 10:30 → BDL 12:13DL 2163	5h 53m	97%	87%
United Details →	DFW 07:20 → IAD 11:26UA 2639	1h 14m Dulles	IAD 12:40 → BDL 14:06UA 632	5h 46m	96%	87%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → ORD 07:38AA 1360	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → BDL 12:28AA 4665 · flown by Republic	6h 28m	97%	86%
American Details →	DFW 05:02 → DCA 09:03AA 1618	1h 00m Washington	DCA 10:03 → BDL 11:35AA 4754 · flown by Republic	5h 33m	93%	86%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:38AA 575	3h 13m Charlotte	CLT 11:51 → BDL 13:50AA 1448	7h 50m	99%	84%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → ORD 09:42AA 1106	3h 46m Chicago	ORD 13:28 → BDL 16:52AA 3409 · flown by Envoy	8h 52m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 15:30 → ORD 18:16AA 2740	48m Chicago	ORD 19:04 → BDL 22:26AA 1453	5h 56m	62%	43%
American Details →	DFW 15:39 → MIA 19:40AA 3083	1h 04m Miami	MIA 20:44 → BDL 23:55AA 1272	7h 16m	67%	42%
American Details →	DFW 14:25 → PHL 18:52AA 1100	52m Philadelphia	PHL 19:44 → BDL 21:22AA 6107 · flown by Piedmont	5h 57m	64%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON