Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3425 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 3425 DFW 07:05 → BHM 08:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 3067 DFW 21:59 → BHM 23:46 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3425 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:05	BHM 08:59	8%	2%	0.7%	79%
AA 3469 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:50	BHM 11:46	9%	3%	0.8%	88%
AA 3417 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:39	BHM 18:35	16%	5%	0.8%	61%
AA 5063 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 12:42	BHM 14:42	19%	11%	0.8%	50%
AA 5267 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 20:10	BHM 22:10	22%	11%	1.1%	72%
AA 5072 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 15:04	BHM 17:06	24%	13%	0.9%	52%
AA 3067 American Flight history →	DFW 21:59	BHM 23:46	33%	12%	0.9%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON