Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3429 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 11:00	BIL 12:59	11%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 3937 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:15	BIL 23:13	13%	3%	0.7%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	DFW 16:16 → SEA 18:37AS 1574	2h 22m Seattle	SEA 20:59 → BIL 23:51AS 2457 · flown by Horizon	8h 35m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	2h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:25 → BIL 17:52DL 3828 · flown by SkyWest	6h 22m	98%	90%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → ORD 07:38AA 1360	2h 27m Chicago	ORD 10:05 → BIL 12:19AA 3428 · flown by Envoy	8h 19m	98%	88%
United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	1h 02m Denver	DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:36UA 4762 · flown by SkyWest	4h 51m	96%	85%
United Details →	DFW 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 644	3h 39m Denver	DEN 13:45 → BIL 15:29UA 5845 · flown by SkyWest	7h 44m	100%	83%
United Details →	DFW 11:35 → DEN 12:45UA 2049	2h 50m Denver	DEN 15:35 → BIL 17:19UA 5498 · flown by SkyWest	6h 44m	97%	78%
Alaska Details →	DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543	1h 24m Seattle	SEA 10:09 → BIL 13:05AS 2054 · flown by Horizon	7h 41m	94%	76%
United Details →	DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303	2h 05m Denver	DEN 20:25 → BIL 22:09UA 5257 · flown by SkyWest	6h 19m	89%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON