Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3912 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3912 DFW 06:00 → BNA 08:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest F9 3052 DFW 17:11 → BNA 19:13 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3912 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 06:00	BNA 08:01	9%	2%	0.7%	78%
AA 3397 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:25	BNA 09:26	10%	2%	0.7%	83%
AA 1520 American Flight history →	DFW 10:00	BNA 11:53	17%	4%	0.7%	78%
AA 1522 American Flight history →	DFW 13:46	BNA 15:44	24%	7%	0.7%	60%
AA 1475 American Flight history →	DFW 12:47	BNA 14:41	24%	7%	0.7%	49%
AA 2750 American Flight history →	DFW 21:30	BNA 23:28	26%	8%	0.9%	34%
AA 1076 American Flight history →	DFW 18:18	BNA 20:17	28%	10%	0.8%	61%
AA 3169 American Flight history →	DFW 19:14	BNA 21:11	28%	9%	0.9%	41%
AA 1500 American Flight history →	DFW 20:15	BNA 22:10	29%	9%	0.9%	54%
AA 1490 American Flight history →	DFW 15:50	BNA 17:48	29%	9%	0.7%	34%
AA 5475 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 16:57	BNA 19:04	32%	11%	1.9%	48%
F9 3052 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:11	BNA 19:13	34%	11%	1.9%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON