Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2351 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2351 DFW 07:15 → BOS 12:08 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1048 DFW 16:04 → BOS 20:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2351 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:15	BOS 12:08	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 1583 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	BOS 11:47	12%	4%	0.7%	78%
AA 1206 American Flight history →	DFW 08:50	BOS 13:37	15%	5%	0.7%	82%
DL 760 Delta Flight history →	DFW 11:20	BOS 16:14	19%	6%	0.7%	68%
AA 1595 American Flight history →	DFW 10:22	BOS 15:10	21%	7%	0.7%	70%
DL 368 Delta	DFW 17:00	BOS 21:55	26%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 1577 American Flight history →	DFW 12:06	BOS 16:55	27%	10%	0.7%	57%
AA 2306 American Flight history →	DFW 17:27	BOS 22:17	32%	13%	0.8%	55%
AA 2224 American Flight history →	DFW 18:29	BOS 23:21	33%	13%	0.8%	40%
AA 1767 American Flight history →	DFW 19:13	BOS 23:59	33%	12%	0.8%	42%
AA 1048 American Flight history →	DFW 16:04	BOS 20:50	33%	14%	0.7%	44%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	DFW 07:00 → STL 08:46AA 1410	53m St Louis	STL 09:39 → BOS 13:24AA 3814 · flown by Envoy	5h 24m	79%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON