Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1615 at 11:55 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1615 American Flight history →	DFW 11:55	BUF 15:52	23%	8%	1.2%	65%
AA 574 American Flight history →	DFW 18:45	BUF 22:50	35%	14%	1.2%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:38AA 575	2h 28m Charlotte	CLT 11:06 → BUF 12:51AA 1616	6h 51m	99%	85%
United Details →	DFW 09:45 → ORD 12:26UA 1114	1h 29m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → BUF 16:41UA 2226	5h 56m	97%	83%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → BOS 11:47AA 1583	2h 09m Boston	BOS 13:56 → BUF 15:43AA 4068 · flown by Envoy	7h 43m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 10:10 → BUF 11:22DL 3636 · flown by SkyWest	5h 02m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	DFW 08:10 → ATL 11:28DL 1627	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266	6h 53m	96%	80%
American Details →	DFW 07:40 → LGA 12:13AA 1609	3h 37m New York	LGA 15:50 → BUF 17:28AA 4378 · flown by Republic	8h 48m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050	7h 35m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:16 → MSP 13:44DL 2972	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749	6h 08m	94%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 10:30 → LGA 15:03AA 3088	47m New York	LGA 15:50 → BUF 17:28AA 4378 · flown by Republic	5h 58m	72%	58%
American Details →	DFW 13:54 → LGA 18:28AA 1535	1h 01m New York	LGA 19:29 → BUF 21:07AA 4521 · flown by Republic	6h 13m	68%	53%
American Details →	DFW 17:34 → ORD 20:29AA 1893	50m Chicago	ORD 21:19 → BUF 23:59AA 403	5h 25m	67%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON