tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1617 at 10:56 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1617 American Flight history → DFW 10:56 BUR 12:05 21% 7% 1.2% 71%
AA 2597 American Flight history → DFW 20:46 BUR 21:58 36% 11% 1.2% 63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291 1h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 09m 94% 85%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 35m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → DFW 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 644 1h 09m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 6h 03m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → DFW 10:50 → PHX 11:19AA 2990 3h 24m Phoenix PHX 14:43 → BUR 16:12AA 6415 · flown by SkyWest 7h 22m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47UA 790 46m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363 5h 57m 88% 76%
UnitedDetails → DFW 15:21 → SFO 17:13UA 454 3h 07m San Francisco SFO 20:20 → BUR 21:47UA 1367 8h 26m 94% 72%
AmericanDetails → DFW 13:40 → PHX 14:08AA 2113 2h 29m Phoenix PHX 16:37 → BUR 18:07AA 4944 · flown by SkyWest 6h 27m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → DFW 11:02 → SFO 12:51UA 1712 3h 24m San Francisco SFO 16:15 → BUR 17:42UA 2764 8h 40m 98% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303 53m Denver DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411 5h 53m 75% 55%
DeltaDetails → DFW 18:12 → SLC 20:00DL 2812 50m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339 5h 36m 72% 53%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 16:16 → SEA 18:37AS 1574 46m Seattle SEA 19:23 → BUR 21:59AS 1408 7h 43m 37% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON