Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2747 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2747 DFW 07:01 → BWI 11:08 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 3004 DFW 15:17 → BWI 19:24 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2747 American Flight history →	DFW 07:01	BWI 11:08	12%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 1629 American Flight history →	DFW 10:51	BWI 14:56	19%	5%	0.7%	68%
F9 3788 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:25	BWI 13:40	25%	6%	0.8%	72%
AA 2251 American Flight history →	DFW 19:37	BWI 23:43	28%	9%	0.9%	62%
AA 3004 American Flight history →	DFW 15:17	BWI 19:24	30%	8%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON