Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5120 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 5120 DFW 08:36 → CHS 12:28 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1662 DFW 15:22 → CHS 19:01 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5120 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 08:36	CHS 12:28	16%	4%	1.6%	84%
AA 1656 American Flight history →	DFW 11:13	CHS 14:50	25%	7%	1.2%	62%
AA 2559 American Flight history →	DFW 19:17	CHS 22:55	33%	10%	1.2%	46%
AA 1662 American Flight history →	DFW 15:22	CHS 19:01	33%	9%	1.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON