Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1680 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 1680 DFW 07:15 → CLE 10:59 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 560 DFW 18:30 → CLE 22:19 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1680 American Flight history →	DFW 07:15	CLE 10:59	13%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 2818 American Flight history →	DFW 10:01	CLE 13:43	20%	6%	0.7%	61%
AA 1682 American Flight history →	DFW 15:14	CLE 18:59	32%	10%	0.8%	48%
AA 560 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	CLE 22:19	34%	12%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON