Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 575 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 575 DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1229 DFW 18:54 → CLT 22:38 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 575 American Flight history →	DFW 05:00	CLT 08:38	7%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 317 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	CLT 10:44	12%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 1690 American Flight history →	DFW 08:30	CLT 12:10	14%	3%	0.7%	88%
F9 3110 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:30	CLT 11:16	17%	5%	1.0%	78%
AA 1857 American Flight history →	DFW 09:50	CLT 13:31	18%	4%	0.7%	72%
AA 1696 American Flight history →	DFW 11:55	CLT 15:36	18%	5%	0.7%	72%
AA 1285 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	CLT 18:13	23%	7%	0.7%	55%
AA 1703 American Flight history →	DFW 17:54	CLT 21:44	25%	8%	0.8%	67%
AA 2409 American Flight history →	DFW 21:25	CLT 00:59	26%	7%	1.0%	33%
AA 2407 American Flight history →	DFW 15:57	CLT 19:45	27%	8%	0.7%	35%
AA 1229 American Flight history →	DFW 18:54	CLT 22:38	28%	8%	0.9%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON