Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 6390 at 11:43 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 6390 DFW 11:43 → COS 12:52 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1695 DFW 13:50 → COS 14:43 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6390 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 11:43	COS 12:52	16%	7%	0.8%	89%
AA 1697 American Flight history →	DFW 08:55	COS 09:52	17%	4%	0.8%	77%
AA 4956 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 15:37	COS 16:43	26%	9%	0.8%	70%
AA 6267 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 17:27	COS 18:34	30%	10%	0.8%	65%
AA 790 American Flight history →	DFW 21:25	COS 22:23	31%	9%	0.8%	55%
AA 1695 American Flight history →	DFW 13:50	COS 14:43	33%	8%	0.8%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON